Can You Count Cards in Online Blackjack?

May 3

The internet is awash with people telling you that it’s possible to win at online blackjack - and we’re here to tell you in no uncertain terms that, actually, it’s next to impossible to play a winning card-counting strategy in online blackjack.

Not convinced? Let us explain.

One of the first things you’ll ever hear about casino culture is reports of mysterious people who “count cards” in blackjack. And while it’s true that some people play extremely complicated card-counting strategies in live black jack, it’s also true that if you ever play live blackjack, some form of card counting ought to be involved. Without card counting, you’re giving even more of an edge to the house and playing a game of pure chance that’s stacked against you. (Even if your form of counting cards is as simple as “It’s been more or less all low cards this hand - I shouldn’t hold out for another”.)

Card counting is logical - and simple enough - in live blackjack, but can you count cards in online blackjack? At first guess, it might seem like online card counting and live card counting are exactly the same - but there’s one big shoe-shaped difference that you need to understand to see how that’s not the case.

Don’t worry, we’ll explain everything there is to know about online blackjack card counting.

What is card counting?

First of all, you’ll need to understand the basics of what counting cards actually entails - and while Hollywood would try to tell you that it’s very complicated and only for mathematicians, that’s really not the case.

Simply put, card counting is a strategy which is used in blackjack in which the player keeps a running tally (of varying detail) of the cards that have already been used as the dealer progresses through the cards in the deck. This information gives the player increasingly accurate information on which cards are likely to be next.

Card counting strategies

We won’t go into the strategies in too much detail here (but here is a simple how-to for beginners if you want to learn) but counting cards in blackjack is essentially just a number of different mathematical approaches to the simple probability involved in the game.

The most common card counting strategy (in a nutshell) is the Hi-Lo system. This is a strategy which assigns one of three different “scores” to each number in the deck. -1, 0, or 1. Cards from 2 to 6 are assigned a +1, 7-9 is 0, and 10 through Ace are worth -1. By adding the numbers together as each new round is dealt, players get an indication of whether they should bet heavily (if the count is high) or lightly (if the count is low.) This becomes more accurate as the game goes on and the player gets more information

Is card counting illegal?

Counting cards can be done to varying degrees and isn’t illegal despite what you might have heard - though serious card counters can find themselves refused service in a casino (as is the casino’s right).

In reality, every good blackjack player counts cards to an extent. If you change your bet because you know that a lot of the high cards have already passed, then congratulations, you’ve just counted cards.

Counting cards in a casino

In live blackjack played in a brick-and-mortar casino, the croupier will shuffle together 6 to 8 decks of cards and place them into a “shoe”, and place a cut card at a random point in the shuffled cards. The cut card is usually placed about 80% of the way into the deck - a fact that will come in handy later.

The dealer will then deal cards from the shoe, and won’t re-shuffle the cards until he or she reaches the cut card. This means that for each card that is dealt from the shoe, until the decks are re-shuffled, a player knows that card is less likely to come up again - and that’s the beauty of card counting.

The more hands you play between the shuffle, before the next re-shuffle, the more accurate your card counting becomes. If you’re interested in finding out how card counting works, here’s a great intro post from Mental Floss.

Card counting in online blackjack

Before we get into the basics of counting cards in online blackjack, we’d like to make a distinction between online blackjack and live online blackjack. For our purposes, online blackjack is completely computer simulated video blackjack, whereas live online blackjack is blackjack featuring a live video feed of a croupier and a real blackjack table.

Below is an example of online blackjack from one of our favourite online casinos, Unibet. (We have reviewed Unitbet’s poker app too, if you’d like to check it out.)

In online blackjack, there’s no shoe and no dealer. Instead, cards are randomly generated for each round. The presence of the random generator (RNG) means the cards are effectively “shuffled” between each round.

As there is no shuffle order, and no cut card 80% of the way through the 6-8 shuffled decks, your card counting efforts from the round before have to be thrown away and started again before each new round - preventing you from getting a running tally of more than a single card - which is obviously not long enough to have any real benefit.

So, sadly, you can’t effectively count cards in online blackjack. Anyone who tells you otherwise is likely trying to sell you a scam.

Can you count cards in live online blackjack?

Pretty much every single online casino offers live online blackjack, which is blackjack in a casino setting with a real dealer and more importantly, a real shoe, which people can play remotely via video feed.

So, you should be able to count cards in live online blackjack, right?

Not quite. Although live online blackjack is dealt from a shoe like in live casino blackjack, the main difference between live online blackjack and blackjack played at a brick-and-mortar casino is where the dealer places the cut card.

Remember that in live casino blackjack, the dealer places the cut card behind about 80% of the cards? Well in live online blackjack the cut card is placed after approximately 40% of the cards, meaning you only get to see 40% of the cards before the dealer reshuffles, drastically reducing the edge you would get from counting cards in a live game.

The number of cards you see before the reshuffle is referred to as “deck penetration” and massively affects your edge. So you’re unlikely to be very successful counting cards in live online blackjack either. Perhaps save it for the live games.

Can you win at Online blackjack?

The house edge in blackjack at a casino is around 0.5% if you use basic strategy. However, many punters at a casino like to gamble in the true sense of the word, and by relying on chance and hope too much, many players inadvertently increase the house edge to as much as 2%.

In pretty much every brick-and-mortar casino, it will be compulsory for the dealer to stand on 17. However, the house edge will be higher when the dealer has to hit on a soft 17 (Ace and 6) but stand on a hard 17 (any other two combinations that make 17, such as 9 and 8.)

There is also a 0.11% increase in the house edge if you’re playing at a blackjack table where there’s no dealer hole card, as players will have no information on the dealer’s cards to inform their bets. You can find out more about the house edge in blackjack here.

In short, while it’s possible to win at blackjack, just as it’s possible to win at any casino game - over time you’re guaranteed to lose money. Counting cards, and playing a good basic strategy will help you to reduce that edge, whereas playing online blackjack will only increase the house edge.

So, as ever, stay within your budget’s limits, play only with what you can afford to lose - and have fun!